Hurford Salvi Carr have been producing excellent Research Papers for years, and these are available from their website http://www.hurford-salvi-carr.co.uk/research. The latest edition notes that the Central London market has seen its first drop in pricing since 2008, and this was not solely due to Brexit.
'The UK’s taxation policy played a large part in the decline in demand in the first half of 2016 and that is not going to change in the near future.'
On the Lettings market, the report concludes that there is currently more supply of rental property competing for a smaller pool of tenants. In such a situation, the preference of Landlords tends to be to accept a lower rent than face a prolonged void. Rents for larger properties have fallen in all areas, the worst being a drop of 17% in the City.
Trying to look ahead into uncharted territory, the report predicts a 5% fall in house prices in the second half of 2016, and further potential falls in 2017. With the fall of sterling and even lower interest rates, there will be a range of buying opportunities for cash rich investors looking for a long-term hold. This will be especially true for overseas investors, but this has to be set against anything the Mayor of London may do to make house-builders offer homes to Londoners.
On balance, HSC expect rents to be unchanged over the next eighteen months. They suspect that given the Referendum vote was never a foregone conclusion, most businesses will have made plans for either outcome.
'Although some way off we can see the opening of the new Elizabeth Line in 2018 may coincide with an improvement in demand in Central London housing, but expect the next 18 months to be challenging.'
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